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NOTE: The model doesn't account for a negative result from the patent litigation case with AET Pharma. A negative outcome would make Harmony Biosciences uninvestable and likely reset the stock price to below $10 per share.

Full-year 2026 operating metrics:

• Full-year 2026 revenue of $997 million, representing an increase of 14.8% from sales of $868.453 million in 2025. Guidance expects $1.00 billion to $1.04 billion.
• First-quarter 2026 revenue of $215 million, compared to $184.733 million in Q1 2025 and $243.776 million in Q4 2025. This reflects normal seasonality for Wakix in the opening frame of every calendar year.
• Full-year 2026 gross margin of 75.5% compared to 77.2% in 2025 and 78.1% in 2024. Gross margin is highest in Q1 (>80%) and declines throughout the year, including the first second-quarter reading below 80% in the franchise's history.
• Full-year 2026 operating expenses of $522 million, excluding patent litigation settlement payments, in-process R&D (IPR&D) expenses, and potential business development. This includes a quarterly average R&D spend of $57.5 million (an increase of 48% from 2025) and sales & marketing expenses of $40.0 million (an increase of 33.8% from 2025). All numbers include non-cash expenses.
• Full-year 2026 operating cash flow of $235 million, including patent litigation expenses in Q1 that result in negative cash flow during the quarter. This excludes possible patent litigation expenses incurred after the bench trial in February 2026.
• Full-year 2026 GAAP net income of $3.40 per share. This excludes patent litigation settlement payments, in-process R&D (IPR&D) expenses, and potential business development.

Wakix contributes $52.26 per share and Wakix GR contributes $3.94 per share. All other assets are excluded.

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