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I don't know why shares of Harmony Biosciences are collapsing lately. After running through my usual checks of public information and regulatory filings, including checking the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System, I don't see any new information. This is a relatively thinly-traded stock, so it wouldn't take much to trigger volatility.

Then again, the company has lost over 20% of its value in a few days on no news. This could be a spectacularly poor decision if there is a negative event that hasn't been reported yet. Today's price movement seems really strange…

I might find out soon. Harmony Biosciences reports full-year 2025 earnings on Tuesday, February 24 before the markets open. Will there be a negative surprise or will the commercial strength of Wakix bring everyone back to their senses again?

The Transaction

This specific transaction is an Opportunistic investment.

Harmony Biosciences is considered a Current Compounder position. I purchased 56.91 shares at $30.75 per share on February 20, 2026. The total transaction value was $1,750.

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Outperformance Scenarios

Investing in individual stocks can be reduced to a simple question: "If I invest $1 in this individual stock at this price, will it outperform an equal passive investment in the S&P 500 at this level?"

If you keep emotions and expectations in check, then you might be surprised to learn you don't need to swing for the fences.

Here's how shares of Harmony Biosciences will need to perform for the money invested in this Finch Trade to outperform passive investing in the S&P 500 in the next five years.

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Assumptions:

• The S&P 500 index gains 10% per year with dividends included – its historical average since 1990.
• Harmony Biosciences averages 1.5% dilution per year in the next five years.
• S&P 500 closing level on February 19, 2026 = 6,862
• Harmony Biosciences investment = $30.75 per share

Margin of Safety & Allocation

Harmony Biosciences is considered a Current Compounder position. The estimated fair valuation based on my current model is below:

• This Investment: $30.75 per share
• Modeled Fair Valuation: $65.32 per share
• Allocation Range: Up to 5%

Harmony Biosciences reported 57.596 million shares outstanding as of October 31, 2025. The modeled fair valuation above assumes 58.460 million shares outstanding, which is equivalent to 1.5% dilution.

Further Reading

• February 20 2026 real-time announcement on Discord

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