The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference has historically been a venue for big announcements, big acquisitions, and big plans. The mood was decidedly more subdued this year.

Major insurance companies were absent; unusual for a group that consistently sets the tone and shares key insights about drug pricing trends. Perhaps they're laying low to avoid political backlash or the drug developers they're clashing with over pricing. The largest announcements this year, primarily relegated to vague promises to use artificial intelligence for vague applications, failed to pack a punch. Long gone are the days when companies like Illumina unveiled breakthrough surprises like the $1,000 human genome.

Maybe expectations were simply too high. Although the recent surge in biotech valuations make it feel as though the sector is turning a corner, even the market makers aren't so sure yet. As Relay Therapeutics co-founder and board member Alexis Borisy told BioPharma Dive, "I think we're in the early innings of the upswing. We don't know for sure. Because when you're down in the trough, you can have false dawns, and you can bounce along there for a long period of time."

Others are more cautious and less optimistic. The BioPharma Dive article continued:

With biotech being so cyclic, newfound success has the potential to stir the formation of another bubble. Momentum investors, seeing strong clinical data or stock spikes, rush in and further bloat valuations. "The net result, given an industry that's driven by animal spirits, is going to be an overcapitalization and a hangover," according to Borisy.

Some firms are already seeing troubling signs. In a December report, RBC analysts warned that the XBI's lengthy run in 2025 had left many companies with stock values that priced in "much more optimism for success." Further growth might be tougher to achieve, they wrote, and results investors view as "less-than-perfect" could cause share prices to tumble.

I still think the market is overdue for a correction – eventually. Biotech stocks won't be spared. There are emerging signs of froth and speculation that have ended in tears 100% of the time in the past. The timing is impossible to predict, but there almost always has to be a trigger. Something has to pierce the narrative that has the market so complacent. What will that be? When will that be?

There are opportunities to be more aggressive in a market gripped by speculation, but keep an emergency exit within sight at all times. Don't position yourself so aggressively that you're staring down a permanent, irreversible loss of your hard-earned capital. A stock that is X% off its 52-week high isn't automatically undervalued. It could still fall another 50%. It might never reclaim its 52-week high. Investors have countless examples from 2021 they seem to be forgetting.

Despite a ho-hum JPM and the return of animal spirits, many companies in the Solt DB coverage ecosystem presented updates at the conference or in the following weeks. That gives investors a good idea of what's to come for the upcoming fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings season.

Most companies in the coverage ecosystem have clear operational roadmaps for 2026. A few outliers – AVITA Medical, Bicycle Therapeutics, Certara, and Codexis – need to convince investors that turnaround plans are the right decision. Then comes the hard part: executing.

Earnings Previews: Q4 2025

Arcus Biosciences $RCUS

• ‍What information matters most?: Management will be positioning casdatifan (HIF-2-alpha asset) as the pipeline's crown jewel. Three data readouts in 2026 will determine whether it can compete commercially with Merck's Welireg in kidney cancer. Meanwhile, the new immunology pipeline will add new verticals to the investment narrative, albeit with much less mature assets.
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 25 last year

Arcus Biosciences ended last year by terminating late-stage development of its TIGIT asset domvanalimab in stomach cancer. Dang. The antibody drug candidate was one of the last molecules standing in its class, which emerged as a promising immuno-oncology combination target before being abandoned by the global industry as a flop. The asset is still being evaluated in five unrelated programs across stomach and lung cancers, but it's been deprioritized and is likely to be terminated.

Investors weren't surprised. The stock price barely budged on the announcement. That's probably because domvanalimab was more of a "nice-to-have" asset than one central to the investment thesis.

Arcus Biosciences begins 2026 with $1 billion in cash and a runway into 2H 2028. That's a relatively high cash burn, but immuno-oncology drug developers succeed by proving new combinations, and each new combo requires its own study. The pipeline lists seven active development programs – and this excludes six expense-generating TIGIT programs, as well as immunology programs expected to enter the clinic this year.

The investment thesis – and the ability to raise the next batch of funding – hinges on casdatifan. The HIF-2-alpha inhibitor was designed with a higher tolerability profile than Merck's Welireg, the only approved drug in the class. Welireg was on pace to generate full-year 2025 revenue of over $700 million. Although early data readouts suggest casdatifan could outperform Welireg on safety and efficacy, the margin of victory could evaporate in larger studies.

Management expects to deliver three data readouts for casdatifan in 2026. If the asset disappoints, then the investment thesis for Arcus Biosciences collapses. If the asset delivers, then there's room to grow the current $2.6 billion valuation. It's not an obvious, screaming buy at current levels.

Arrowhead Pharma $ARWR

• Reported fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 5
• What information mattered most?: The RNAi drug developer has diverse momentum. It will spend 2026 ramping Redemplo in FCS and sharing multiple late-stage data readouts in larger indications. Additional updates across obesity, neuro, lung, and inflammatory pipelines will add or subtract value.
• Discord thread

Arrowhead begins 2026 with incredible momentum across diverse pipelines, $1.85 billion in pro forma cash, and its first commercial ramp with Redemplo. The niche approval in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) has already secured the first 100 prescriptions, but approvals in larger indications like severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) are key to becoming a high-impact asset. Multiple data readouts are expected this year, which means supplemental approvals and launches could occur in 2027.

My model for Arrowhead excludes too many things to be relevant. Don't let the recent run up discourage you: this remains one of the best-positioned drug developers for the foreseeable future. A few promising data readouts across sHTG and obesity could thrust the business to a $20 billion valuation by the end of the year.

I'll be spending the next month or so adding individual pipelines and updating the model accordingly with one research note per week.

• REDEMPLO: "Arrowhead's Aggressive Redemplo Pricing Strategy Might Not Work"
• OBESITY = "Genetic Medicines Might Be the Future of Obesity Treatments"
• NEURO = "RNAi Can Cross the Blood-Brain Barrier, but Tissue Penetration is Key"
• INFLAMMATION = "Work On Your Complements: RNAi Takes Aim at Inflammation"

AVITA Medical $RCEL

• What information matters most?: Investors want to see the new CEO's commercial strategy. Annual guidance sets realistic expectations – it might even be a little low for once – and establishes 2026 as a turnaround year. What's the expected growth profile of the business for the rest of the decade? Is stable vitiligo back in play?
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 13 last year

AVITA Medical slammed the reset button at the end of 2025. The board of directors gave investors a new CEO and gave the new CEO simple instructions: please stop touching the hot stove.

Interim Guy immediately moved to reset the narrative by issuing realistic guidance. The company expects full-year 2026 revenue of $80 million to $85 million, representing growth of 12% to 19%. That allows time to fix reimbursement issues after the federal government broke things, figure out what the hell is going on with international distributors, and decide if secondary products like PermeaDerm and Cohealyx are still part of the story or were failed growth hacking attempts from Previous Guy.

If it doesn't take an entire year to stabilize the business (it should take less), then AVITA Medical could grow meaningfully faster than guidance suggests. It should still grow much faster than 20% per year in 2027 and beyond.

Growth isn't the priority for investors right now. AVITA Medical still needs to figure out how to raise capital. Interim Guy refinanced the OrbiMed loan with a new loan from Perceptive Advisors, but aside from incrementally improved terms that move essentially only changed lenders. Management still needs to find $25 million or more to get the business to escape velocity – and not be modeled for bankruptcy.

Bicycle Therapeutics $BCYC

• What information matters most?: Bicycle Therapeutics seems likely to terminate its lead drug candidate and pivot to its emerging radiopharmaceuticals and theranostics pipelines. Are we ripping that Band-aid off sooner or later?
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 25 last year

In early February 2026, Bicycle Therapeutics announced changes to its management team including a new CFO, CMO (chief medical officer), and CSO (chief scientific officer). The press release painstakingly avoided references to the lead drug candidate, zelenctide pevedotin ("zele"), and instead drew attention to the "next phase of innovation across oncology pipeline."

That sure sounds like a company that's about to announce a pivot. As in, terminating the lead drug candidate and going all-in on radiopharmaceuticals and theranostics. The stock would get crushed – it's already trading at a fraction of its cash balance – but pairing the company's novel drug delivery technology with radiopharma assets could create some unfair advantages.

The only reason Bicycle Therapeutics gets a spot in the coverage ecosystem is because of the potential in radiopharma. In other words, a pivot would be painful for anyone who owns shares now, but it's also the cleanest way to get rid of zele. It's almost a best-case scenario for an investment thesis in radiopharma.

Here's the hard part: a radiopharma pivot is going to take years to demonstrate meaningful traction. I'd still be interested in seeding a long-term, Future Compounder position after a pivot is announced with the understanding it might be brutal to look at in the near term.

Certara $CERT

• What information matters most?: The new CEO needs to navigate the final throes of the biotech winter and, apparently, fears over a SaaSpocalypse.
• Full-year 2025 earnings scheduled for February 26 before markets open

A half dozen companies in the coverage ecosystem have announced recent management changes, but Certara did so in the most orderly fashion. The prior CEO, Will Feehery, made a large open-market purchase of stock last fall. Then in early December, the company announced Jon Resnick would take the helm beginning on the first day of 2026.

Resnick brings experience in the somewhat opaque world of clinical data management from career stops at IMS Health and IQVIA. He also served a recent stint on the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance. He's either the exact right person for the job, or his experience is too dependent on the way the world worked yesterday. There's only one way to find out.

Certara has done a great job increasing the share of software revenue in the overall sales mix. What might be less obvious is that the acquisition of Chemaxon and recent launch of Certara IQ fundamentally alter the company's growth engine.

Historically, most services and software revenue has come from preclinical studies, clinical trials, and regulatory decisions. Those combine for a total addressable market (TAM) of about $2 billion. Chemaxon and Certara IQ shore up the company's offerings in drug discovery activities, which alone has a TAM of $2 billion.

Doubling the market opportunity is great. Can the business seize it? Certara is still contending with hesitant customers looking to preserve their own cash runways, which remains the biggest headwind in 2026. I don't think the SaaSpocalypse poses a threat to the business due to the extreme paranoia of drug developers, but that doesn't mean the stock price will reflect that.

If Resnick can navigate current market headwinds and return the business to its historical growth rate of 15% to 20%, then a stock price dinged from the SaaSpocalypse might be a good time to add. We'll get one early signal at the end of the month.

Codexis $CDXS

• What information matters most?: The new management team was announced in time for the Q3 update last November, but the information presented was disappointedly high level. What's the new expected timeline for scaling up ECO Synthesis?
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 27 last year

Tomorrow's winners are usually found on today's trash heap. Codexis might be a great example – if enzymatic production of RNA medicines proves commercially viable.

This is riskier than a drug developer. Despite the fact over 90% of drug candidates fail, the process of drug development is structured. Investors get objective signals from data readouts over the course of an asset's development. There are multiple opportunities to build, downsize, or exit a position.

Investors don't have any of that with Codexis. For example, the underlying economics of ECO Synthesis are unknown. Has it achieved 20% or 50% of the cost target or overall process efficiency? Can it be deployed continuously or is it relegated to batch production? Do the economics make sense if customers use a hybrid approach (the current ligation services)?

These answers are… kinda important. They will also determine how quickly ECO Synthesis scales in the market. If ligation services gain traction in 2026, then it could pave the way to more lucrative contracts in the near future. Case in point: oligo CDMO ST Pharm got a one-year, $56 million contract to produce olezarsen or plozasiran. Codexis has never had more than $50 million in annual product revenue aside from a temporary surge during the pandemic.

Coherus Oncology $CHRS

• What information matters most?: Management has done a solid job creating and amplifying a catchy investor narrative. Is there additional clarity on the timing of data readouts? Don't forget a data readout from STORM Therapeutics expected this year.
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on March 10 last year

An ambitious development plan sets the stage for a make or break year for Coherus Oncology.

The investment thesis hinges on successfully developing tagmokitug (CCR8 inhibitor) and casdozokitug (IL-27 inhibitor), which will combine for a half dozen data readouts in 2026. Future approvals are years and hundreds of millions of dollars away, but each one will also generate revenue for Loqtorzi. Such is life in immuno-oncology.

Coherus does not have enough money to execute its plan. Not yet. If the stock pops on favorable pipeline developments, then the business could raise funding before the runway expires. But the stock price is still relatively low, so management needs to be careful to limit dilution. The company could outlicense rights to specific assets in specific indications to raise cash. It could also monetize Udenyca milestone rights for a quick cash injection. If management is positioning the business for an acquisition, then the cash runway doesn't need to be maximized, it only needs to be "long enough."

Finally, investors are reminded that STORM Therapeutics could have a preliminary data readout for STC-15 (METTL3 inhibitor) combined with toripalimab in a basket study of solid tumors. STC-15 is the first RNA modifying enzyme inhibitor to enter clinical trials, so early promise could generate more buzz for Coherus. A failed study wouldn't mean much, since Coherus has nothing at risk.

Coherus reported preliminary financial metrics including Loqtorzi revenue of roughly $12.5 million in Q4 2025 (lower than expected). The business began 2026 with $172 million in cash.

Day One Bio $DAWN

• What information matters most?: Management has set clear expectations for Ojemda, but could be clearer about development plans for the pipeline.
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 25 last year

Investors keep speculating that Day One Bio might be an acquisition target. That might be true, but the business sure would be worth a whole lot more if it wielded a high-impact asset.

The business reported preliminary full-year 2025 Ojemda sales of $155.4 million. Initial guidance expects full-year 2026 revenue of $225 million to $250 million. While that represents year-over-year growth of over 50% at the midpoint, it's only slightly higher than the Q4 annualized exit rate of $211 million. Management believes the asset has peak revenue potential near $400 million in its current indication, plus another $500 million in yet-to-be-approved first-line settings.

The pipeline adds additional future growth potential.

DAY301 is an antibody drug conjugate (ADC) that inhibits PTK7 proteins. The asset has been sitting in a phase 1a dose escalation study for an unusually long time, but a data readout is tentatively scheduled for 2H 2026. Management hasn't offered a peak sales estimate for the asset.

The newest asset, emiltataug ledadotin (Emi-Le), was abruptly added from the acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics. It's slightly more mature – in phase 1b, watch out! – but is being developed in a rare, aggressive cancer called adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC). A phase 1 data readout is expected in mid-2026. Management thinks the asset has peak sales potential of $300 million.

Emi-Le targets B7-H4, which has attracted global investment but delivered a string of clinical failures. As one recent example, Pfizer terminated an asset from the Seagen acquisition and took a $1 billion impairment charge. Day One Bio hopes to avoid a similar fate – and thinks it could move directly from phase 1 study into a pivotal program.

As a side note, the most common mutation in ACC tumors is PI3K-alpha. Day One Bio and Relay Therapeutics share a board member.

Harmony Biosciences $HRMY

• What information matters most?: Management can't seem to set an investment narrative that investors care about. Will it follow through on plans to acquire additional assets?
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 25 last year

I want Harmony Biosciences to be acquired, but not every little girl's dreams can come true. The world doesn't have enough ponies.

Barring a sale, there aren't any exciting developments on the horizon. Management has been teasing the potential to acquire new assets, but that could backfire if Wall Street analysts question the use of cash. The rest of the path forward rests on the Wakix franchise and the orexin-2 receptor (OX2R) agonist candidate BP1.15205.

The Wakix brand might eclipse $1 billion in annual revenue in 2026. A new gastro-resistant coating formulation, Wakix GR, aced its bioequivalence study and is expected to launch in 2027. That will help the franchise maintain competitiveness against OX2R agonists that begin launching later this year.

Why does Wakix GR matter? Every current narcolepsy treatment requires patients to start at a low dose and gradually ramp to the prescribed dose. This is called titration. It's done to gently prepare your gut microbiome for the not-so-gentle disruption of a new drug product. By 2027, only two treatments will avoid titration: Wakix GR and OX2R agonists. They'll also be the only non-scheduled substances approved for narcolepsy.

Meanwhile, Harmony Biosciences thinks the French research group that discovered and developed pitolisant left some efficacy on the table. Judging from pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data, that might be correct. The company is developing a high-dose formulation that will also have the gastro-resistant coating. If a bioequivalence study proves successful, then Wakix HD could launch in 2028. That could further maintain competitiveness in the wake of OX2R agonists launching and create opportunities for combinations, which are likely off limits for other agents.

Management's job in the next 36 months is simple: keeping the Wakix plane in the air and hopefully getting successful data readouts for BP1.15205. If Centessa Pharmaceuticals shows that high potency OX2R agonists are the future of the drug class, then Harmony Biosciences might suddenly find itself riding a new growth narrative.

Kiniksa Pharma $KNSA

• What information matters most?: All eyes this year are on the 2H 2026 data readout for KPL-387.
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 25 last year

Arcalyst keeps humming along. It shows no signs of slowing this year.

Kiniksa Pharma reported preliminary full-year 2025 revenue of $677.5 million, up 62% from the prior-year period. Not many drug brands grow like that at this point in a commercial ramp. Whether it continues might be a moot point, as Arcalyst has been prescribed to just 18% of the multiple recurrence population (essentially the second-line setting for this indication). The drug has captured less than 5% of the much-larger first recurrence population.

Initial guidance expects full-year 2026 revenue of $900 million to $920 million, but management has historically set the bar low. As crazy as it sounds, Arcalyst might have a chance to reach blockbuster status this year. It's all but guaranteed for 2027.

The business is valued at $3.3 billion, which might seem low, but investors must account for milestone payments to Regeneron. Kiniksa is required to fork over half of all gross profits for Arcalyst, which is equivalent to roughly one-third of total revenue. That's a big financial drag.

Kiniksa is developing two assets that work similarly to Arcalyst but could be dosed more conveniently. Importantly, their wholly-owned assets. Investors can expect a data readout for the phase 2 study of KPL-387 in 2H 2026. If there are no negative surprises, then investors can expect the existing study to transition into the phase 3 portion.

If the data readout contains any negative surprises or dosing isn't hitting internal metrics, then the company could pivot to KPL-1161. The fast-follower hasn't entered the clinic yet, but it could be dosed quarterly instead of monthly (KPL-387) or weekly (Arcalyst). And if Arcalyst keeps crushing it, then what's the rush?

Krystal Biotech $KRYS

• What information matters most?: The drug developer finally plans to invest more than $15 million per quarter in R&D.
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 19 last year

Krystal Biotech is a great business. Vyjuvek ended last year with an annual revenue run rate of $425 million. The business begins 2026 with $955 million in cash on hand. For once, management intends to use the strong balance sheet to create additional shareholder value. A new goal aims to have four rare disease approvals by 2030.

The gene therapy developer has pledged to advance multiple pipeline assets. That includes niche indications like the new pivotal program for KB801 in neurotrophic keratitis, but also more lucrative indications like KB407 in cystic fibrosis. Both of those assets could contribute to the 2030 goal.

Other assets aren't part of that ambitious commercial goal, but could become important to the investment thesis. That includes KB408 in alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency and KB707 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

The current $7.9 billion valuation represents a premium, but might not fully reflect the pipeline's potential – if only management actually develops it.

Recursion Pharma $RXRX

• What information matters most?: The new CEO will continue focusing investors on a more sensible development strategy.
• Full-year 2025 (l)earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 28 last year

Recursion Pharmaceuticals needs less drug discovery, more drug development.

The AI drug discovery company has earned a premium valuation based on hype, but hasn't followed a sensible development strategy to date. There are no signs it has mapped development goals to commercial opportunities. It has terminated dozens of programs, while never advancing an asset into pivotal study. Yikes.

The market is starting to question what, exactly, Recursion is trying to do. The stock hasn't benefitted from the recent surge in biotech stocks. In fact, shares have lost 42% of their value since peaking in mid-October. Many precommercial drug developers have seen shares double since then.

Yet, the business sports a generous $2 billion valuation. For comparison, Relay Therapeutics is valued at $1.5 billion after its recent surge. There's a lot of hype that could still be squeezed out of Recursion.

The new CEO is going to try like hell to stop that from happening, but she inherited the same questionable assets the business had before. Is there a way to pair Recursion's industrial phenotypic screening with a coherent drug development strategy? Can phenotypic screening ever be enough to discover and develop successful drugs? Most scientists think not, which would be terrible news for shareholders.

Relay Therapeutics $RLAY

• What information matters most?: The development plan for zovegalisib in CDKi-experienced breast cancer is set. All investors can do is wait. But what about all the other assets and indications?
• Full-year 2025 earnings date not yet scheduled
• Reported on February 26 last year

Investors are beginning to pay attention to Relay Therapeutics. Will management's no-nonsense approach be able to keep their attention? After all, there are no earnings conference calls around here, and the investment thesis hinges on the ReDiscover-2 data readout expected in mid-2028. That's a long wait. Bitcoin could be worthless by then.

There will be additional de-risking events before the ReDiscover-2 data readout.

In March, the company will share data for the 400 mg fed dosing cohort of the phase 1/2 ReDiscover study. Although this data readout is unlikely to be interpretable for efficacy, investors want to see an improved tolerability profile. Taking zovegalisib with food is intended to reduce some of the upper gastrointestinal side effects, which increase its combination potential. That's crucially important for this specific commercial opportunity.

Relay Therapeutics could provide preliminary results for zovegalisib in vascular malformations before the end of 2026. It should also be ready to share the first triplet data for zovegalisib, although responses might be measured in years (similar to Itovebi). That will create long periods in between updates.

The business has decisively retained full rights to zovegalisib. But it could be open to licensing rights in specific indications, such as prostate cancer. Licensing could be a clever way to raise non-dilutive capital and justify thrusting other assets into the clinic.

Twist Bioscience $TWST

• Reported fiscal Q1 2026 results on February 5
• What information mattered most?: The business is in good shape, but companies typically keep a cash runway of 24 months at minimum. Twist Bioscience is bumping up against that level, which suggests a capital raise is on the horizon.
• Discord thread

Twist Bioscience started the new fiscal year by changing how it reports revenue mix. It provides much greater clarity into the business.

For the application mix, the business has condensed five categories into two: 1) DNA synthesis and protein solutions, and 2) NGS applications. It used to break down revenue into synthetic genes, oligo pools, DNA and biopharma libraries, antibody discovery, and NGS tools.

For the industry revenue mix, the business has reorganized categories to provide more nuanced looks at the maturing business. Whereas it previously reported "healthcare," it now breaks customer orders into "therapeutics" and "diagnostics."

Small changes can have a big impact. Investors and analysts might find Twist Bioscience is an easier business to understand, which can help shares trade closer to fair value and reduce volatility. It also helps that the business is in relatively good shape.

Twist Bioscience achieved a gross margin of 52% in fiscal Q1. It's on pace to generate full-year 2026 revenue of up to $440 million, which might be a bar too low. The singular blemish is cash burn that's a touch too high. The business ended fiscal Q1 (the period ending December 31) with $198 million in cash, but reported an operating cash outflow of $24.8 million. Quick maths reveals a cash runway of a little over 24 months, suggesting a capital raise might be on the horizon during calendar 2026.

Finch Trades Review

As of market close February 6, 2026, Finch Trades has a total return of 62.8%. The overall portfolio is outperforming the S&P 500 ($SPY) by 39.1%, the Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) by 33.4%, the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF ($XBI) by 18.4%, and the Ark Genomic Revolution ETF ($ARKG) by 26.4%.

Finch Trades is now live on the website. Members can view performance by:

• Individual transaction. For example, the purchase of Relay Therapeutics on September 13, 2024.
• Individual position. For example, all nine transactions to date that have built the overall position in Relay Therapeutics.
• Allocation group. How have investments performed whether belonging to Future Compounders, Current Compounders, or Opportunistic allocation groups?
• Calendar year. How have investments performed based on the year principal was invested?
• How has Finch Trades performed overall since inception?

I built it with 100% transparency and to reflect how investing works in the real world. Finch Trades won't be successful if I had a good idea that one time. It'll be successful if I demonstrate the ability to consistently think clearly and make sound decisions over meaningful periods of time. Am I just riding trends and getting lucky? (I'll take some luck!) Was my thesis correct for entering or exiting a position? Do I build positions properly and take intelligent risks?

Finch Trades is well-positioned to navigate market volatility in the next few years. The three major positions provide staggered, upcoming de-risking events that could generate significant returns.

• Locked In. Exited positions (including the Current Compounder position of Exact Sciences that will be exited when the acquisition closes next quarter) have provided gains of $8,891. For that to be cancelled out and Finch Trades to have a total return of 0%, Coherus Oncology would need to trade at $1 per share, Relay Therapeutics would need to trade at $5 per share, and Harmony Biosciences would need to trade at $30 per share. That's not impossible, but it seems unlikely. Expected news flow suggests any slump in these positions might be temporary.
• Harmony Biosciences (Current Compounder): The position in Harmony Biosciences provides protection against volatility. I still lean towards an acquisition, but the upcoming earnings call might nix that idea. An acquisition at a lowly $4 billion would grow the position to $47,000 – not bad considering it began as $20,000 of Opportunistic investments in late April 2025. If the timing lines up just right, then I could redeploy capital ahead of expected de-risking events for Coherus Oncology and Relay Therapeutics.
• Coherus Oncology (Future Compounder): The position in Coherus Oncology should finally begin paying off in 2026. Data readouts for CCR8 inhibitors across the competitive landscape could generate buzz and FOMO for the company's asset, tagmokitug. It's one of four global drug developers with an approved PD-1 asset and a clinical CCR8 asset. The others are Bristol Myers Squibb, Roche, and BeOne Medicines (BeiGene). Can't acquire those and they might not want to license rights to peers. If CCR8 lives up to the hype and casdozo combinations show promise in liver cancer later this summer, then tiny little Coherus could emerge as one of the top immuno-oncology drug developers. If Harmony Biosciences is acquired, then I would expect to add up to $40,000 to the position in Coherus at up to $4 per share. The current position was built with $9,250 in principal.
• Relay Therapeutics (Future Compounder): The position in Relay Therapeutics is carrying Finch Trades. That's good. That's was kinda the point. The stock has strong momentum in recent months, but at a valuation of just $1.5 billion, there's considerable room to run. Is a $3 billion valuation enough? That's almost $18 per share – and I could easily justify it. I expect to break all the rules for portfolio allocation and build this position as large as possible. If the investing gods smile down upon the finch, then I would move capital from Harmony Biosciences to Coherus Oncology to Relay Therapeutics by mid-2027.

For fun, consider an oh-so-sweet scenario for the next 18 months.

If I could exit Harmony near a $4 billion valuation, then I could buy another $40,000 in Coherus at $4 per share (to be conservative). If I can enter Coherus at $4 per share and it gets acquired for $2 billion by mid-2027, then I could have nearly $175,000 to redeploy into other Finch Trades positions. Maybe I throw it all into Relay Therapeutics and wait until 2032. If the business can claim a relatively low $15 billion valuation by then (zovegalisib in breast cancer alone could justify that), then that Finch Trades position could be worth over $1 million.

What could possibly go wrong?