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What, did you think we were done here?

Not having a job for the last year f*nched up my ability to grow investment positions before biotech stocks reawakened last fall. It may no longer be realistic for me to hoard 20,000 shares of Relay Therapeutics, but I should be able to get to 10,000 shares before mid-2027. That assumes most of the money from my souring Coherus Oncology position can be invested into this position at $20 per share.

Although it's reasonable to expect some of the recent biotech rallies to stop and catch their breath (ex: Arrowhead Pharma), the "problem" for Relay Therapeutics is that the current $1.9 billion valuation is still pretty disrespectful. Large hedge funds are beginning to crowd in. Meanwhile, there are three data readouts this year; one from each blockbuster indication.

The data readouts could have negative surprises or mixed signals that throw cold water on the stock's seemingly unstoppable momentum. But if the market is starting to pay attention to zovegalisib, and the data readouts are positive, then buckle up buttercup.

The only component in my current model is a successful launch in CDKi-experienced breast cancer, which has a value of $4.2 billion as we sit here in early 2026. It will increase as launch nears. However, the CDKi-naïve breast cancer and vascular anomalies commercial opportunities are worth 3x more. Each. And that only includes sales in the United States.

Zovegalisib could have peak annual U.S. revenue of $14 billion. If you hold up your left hand, then you could count all the drug brands that currently generate at least $14 billion in annual revenue on that hand alone. Now use that hand to pinch yourself. On a global basis, zovegalisib could reach peak annual sales of $23 billion. At that level it would outsell every medicine aside from the top obesity treatments.

Let's not get too carried away – for one more day at least. The first data readout of the year is expected Monday, March 16.

Relay Therapeutics will share data from the phase 1/2 ReDiscover study for the recommended phase 3 dose (RP3D). It'll be the first look at data from patients taking 400 mg twice-daily with food, imposed to reduce upper gastrointestinal side effects. That's important for the asset's other indications, too. CDKi-naïve breast cancer requires stacking side effects in more complex combinations (so best to limit your asset's contribution), while vascular anomalies require chronic dosing and need to be pediatric-friendly (maximizing tolerability is a good moat).

That will be followed by the first data readout for zovegalisib monotherapy in vascular anomalies, which is expected in 1H 2026. I would expect it to have a much bigger impact on the stock than the RP3D data readout this month.

The Trade

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Future Compounder position. I purchased 120.19 shares at $10.40 per share on March 12, 2026. The total transaction value was $1,250.

Outperformance Scenarios

Investing in individual stocks can be reduced to a simple question: "If I invest $1 in this individual stock at this price, will it outperform an equal passive investment in the S&P 500 at this level?"

If you keep emotions and expectations in check, then you might be surprised to learn you don't need to swing for the fences.

Here's how shares of Relay Therapeutics will need to perform for the money invested in this Finch Trade to outperform passive investing in the S&P 500 in the next five years.

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Assumptions:

• The S&P 500 index gains 10% per year with dividends included – its historical average since 1990.
• Relay Therapeutics averages 10.5% dilution per year in the next five years – equivalent to a standard 17.5% dilutive event every 18 months. This means shares need to gain 61% in the next five years, but the market cap would need to grow by 131% in that span from $1.89 billion to $4.36 billion.
• S&P 500 closing level on March 12, 2026 = 6,687
• Relay Therapeutics closing price on March 12, 2026 = $10.40 per share

Margin of Safety & Allocation

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Future Compounder position. The estimated fair valuation based on my current model is below:

• Market close March 12: $10.55 per share
• Modeled Fair Valuation: $17.68 per share
• Allocation Range: Up to 15%

Relay Therapeutics reported 178.75 million shares outstanding as of February 20, 2026. The modeled fair valuation above assumes 237.5 million shares outstanding, which accounts for all expected dilution through the launch of zovegalisib.

Further Reading

• March 2026 research note analyzing the Q4 2025 business update