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Margin of Safety Dashboard
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
ARWR
$
40.15
(
-2.7
%)
(
+
-2.7
%)
+
-29.6
%
28.27
Nasdaq
Last Price
11/17/25, 09:30 AM
EDT
Margin of Safety
Future Compounder
$
28.27
PORTFOLIO CATEGORY
Modeled fair value
Up to 15%
$3.871 billion
Allocation Suggestion
Modeled fair value
Model Basis
LAST REFINED:
August 14, 2025
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
Component A:
Plozasiran approval in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) in November 2025
Component B:
Risk-weighted valuation contributions from plozasiran in SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and MUIR-3
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:
Complement-mediated disease assets ARO-C3 and ARO-CFB (phase 2 ready)
Zodasiran in homozygous familial hypercholesteremia (HoFH) (phase 3)
ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7 obesity assets
ARO-DIMER-PA in mixed hyperlipidemia (phase 1 ready)
ARO-MAPT in Alzheimer's disease (phase 1/2 ready)
Plozasiran in SHASTA-5 (label expansion: acute pancreatitis in sHTG) and CAPITAN studies (label expansion: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk reduction)
ARO-RAGE in inflammatory lung diseases (phase 1/2)
ARO-PNPLA3 in a subset of metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) (phase 1)
Fazirsiran in alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) liver disease (phase 3, partnered with Takeda)
ARO-SNCA in synucleinopathies such as Parkinson's disease (phase 1 ready, licensed to Novartis)
Olpasiran in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (phase 3, licensed to Amgen)
Research Deep Dive
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Research Notes
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Member Digest Q3 2025: Earnings Preview
October 30, 2025
A look at what to expect when companies report third-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late October and extending through November.
By
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Member Digest October 2025: Position Management During a Melt Up
October 19, 2025
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Arrowhead Pharma Preps Trio of Plozasiran Readouts in Mid-2026
August 14, 2025
The three pivotal data readouts for plozasiran could expand the commercial opportunity beyond the 1,000-patient niche of FCS and into the 3.5 million-patient opportunity in SHTG.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Member Digest Q2 2025: Earnings Preview
July 29, 2025
A look at what to expect when companies report second-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late July and extending through August.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Member Digest Q1 2025: Earnings Preview
April 28, 2025
A look at what to expect when companies report first-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late April and extending through May.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Arrowhead Pharma, Takeda Fall Behind with A1AT Deficiency Program
March 12, 2025
Silencing mutant proteins has demonstrated promising therapeutic potential in the liver disease. Correcting mutant proteins seems even better.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Arrowhead Pharma Snags $1.125 Billion from Sarepta Therapeutics
December 27, 2024
The RNAi pioneer will earn $825 million upfront, plus $300 million more in the next 12 months for clinical milestones. The haul provides a cash runway into 2028.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
$KRYS , Krystal Biotech , Crystal Biotech
Member Digest December 2024: The Case for a Strategic Cash Position
December 1, 2024
This month I reveal my lessons from the last market bubble and correction, which influences my current strategy. I also beat you over the head as a reminder to avoid FOMO, remain disciplined, and keep your emotions separated from your money.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Finch Trades: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (October 1, 2024)
October 1, 2024
The business is poised for an inflection point in 2024 as it ramps multiple new products and returns to cash-flow positive operations, which has been the primary driver of Wall Street's disinterest in the stock.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
RNAi , RNA interference , Dicerna , cardiometabolic , obesity , olpasiran , Amgen , Takeda , INHBE , zodasiran , plozasiran ,
Finch Trades: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (September 25, 2024)
September 25, 2024
Sentiment for biotech is historically low right now. Although investors are rightfully eyeing Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' high cash burn with unease, I think the recent punishment is short-sighted.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
Investors Cheered Arrowhead's Ambitious Pipeline. Then They Got the Bill
May 12, 2024
Operating cash outflow in the first half of 2024 exceeded the annual total from 2023. That's the price to pay for an ambitious (and top-tier) pipeline.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
zodasiran , plozasiran , olpasiran , fazisiran , A1AT liver disease , RNAi , RNA interference , cardiometabolic , obesity , Takeda , Amgen , R&D cash expense
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Thinks It Can Do It All
February 7, 2024
The RNAi drug developer will effectively place a ceiling on non-core R&D expenses. The decision can help to offset fast-growing expenses in support of core cardiometabolic and lung programs.
By
Maxx Chatsko (Invest)
RNAi , rna , interference , plozasiran , zodasiran , olpasiran , Amgen , GSK , GlaxoSmithKline
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