Research Notes

A small, watch position in an overlooked company with an intriguing approach to disrupting PI3K-alpha mutants.

A better-late-than-never recap of earnings updates from around the coverage ecosystem. Given the rising risk of rising interest rates, let's take a peek at cash positions and cash runways for each business, too.

Relay Therapeutics issued a "Don't Get Cute" public stock offering that was upsized due to significant demand. The roughly $300 million in net proceeds might be used to advance a second, yet-to-be-revealed PI3K-alpha inhibitor capable of entering the brain.

One more bite before the preliminary data readout from the phase 1/2 ReInspire study of zovegalisib monotherapy in vascular anomalies.

One more bite before the preliminary data readout from the phase 1/2 ReInspire study of zovegalisib monotherapy in vascular anomalies.

The market is looking frothy and increasingly detached from reality. Luckily for me, so is the less than $2.5 billion market valuation of Relay Therapeutics.

The first zovegalisib triplet intended for 1L patients only has data in 3L patients. Oh, and it wants to replace fulvestrant with an aromatase inhibitor, for which there are no data. Welcome to MIDD, baby.

The drug developer revealed data suggesting 400 mg of zovegalisib twice-daily with food performed equivalently to 600 mg twice-daily without food. That removes uncertainty after the last-minute switch, while the reduced pill burden without sacrificing efficacy bolsters the commercial potential in other indications.

ECO Synthesis landed its first preclinical customer, while the GMP manufacturing facility is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027. Can you wait until 2028 for things to really take off?

I've now deployed $2,500 of my $10,000 goal into Relay Therapeutics ahead of the vascular anomalies data readout in 1H 2026.

I plan to add about $10,000 of principal to my Relay Therapeutics position before the vascular anomalies data readout in 1H 2026.

The business expects to settle the Udenyca TSA payables with cash in a "front-loaded" manner in 2026. This appears to be the real reason for the public stock offering in February 2026.

Nothing new here. I plan on building out my Coherus Oncology position during 2026 to capture the potential value created from a half dozen data readouts this year.

I expect to build a small position in the industrial enzyme specialist this month, but this position will be higher-risk than a precommercial drug developer.

My model assumed the threat from generic competition wouldn't arrive until 2030, but a negative surprise from the patent litigation case creates too much uncertainty.

Investors can expect at least three data readouts for zovegalisib across three unique indications in 2026. The first is this month.

CEO Jon Resnick noted headwinds from the biotech winter, but also addressed the company's lack of internal execution and focus as a reason for underperformance.

Management waved away risks from the ongoing patent infringement case, which now only includes a single generic drug developer. All it takes is one though.

A routine court case was intended to force generic drug developers into settlements. Instead, Harmony Biosciences finds itself in a slugfest at the worst possible time.

I haven't found a reason for shares to lose over 20% of their value in a few days, but the business is healthy and Wakix has considerable commercial momentum. Full-year 2025 earnings are scheduled for next week, so I'll soon learn if there are any negative surprises or if this Opportunistic investment pays off.

The company has the world's largest team of QSP experts. Now it has the world's only integrated software platform allowing customers of all sizes to accelerate drug discovery and development.

The DNA synthesis pioneer faces headwinds from customers in academia, government, and (unusually) diagnostics. Luckily, global expansion and strength from drug developers is keeping the business on track.

This month's digest recaps the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference and previews the upcoming earnings season for Q4 2025.

The enzyme producer's CTO stepped into the CEO role. Her deep experience in process engineering and scale-up will help guide ECO Synthesis to commercial viability.

This month I explore the recent surge in M&A activity, where 2025 ranks from a historical perspective, and evaluate the acquisition potential of the coverage ecosystem.

It pains me to fully exit my position in Arrowhead Pharma, but this transaction can extend my runway to find a real job into the spring.

A takeout at $105 per share represents a more than 60% premium to the average closing price of the last month.

The former CEOs of Acceleron Pharmaceuticals and Lexicon Pharmaceuticals add deep experience in complex licensing transactions, commercial launches of blockbuster drugs, and acquisitions (hopefully not).

The American biotech sector has been mired in a recession since 2022. Picks and shovels businesses like Certara have had to temper their growth plans, with no end in sight. Certara IQ could change that in 2026.

Despite a limited cash runway, the drug developer is quickly expanding clinical programs for its prized CCR8 asset. Licensing could provide breathing room.

The business is objectively strong based on profitability and cash flow, but analysts remain concerned about potential commercial headwinds in the next few years.

A look at what to expect when companies report third-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late October and extending through November.

This month I share insights into how I might temporarily downsize or exit Finch Trades positions if the market keeps melting up.

The wound care specialist is now on its third CEO in three years. Can the business possibly salvage its technology platform?

Management didn't share data, but said a higher than expected response rate in the placebo group derailed the study.

AVITA Medical recorded trailing 12-month revenue of $50,000 in Europe through June 2025.

Shares are expected to move by double digits in either direction pending results. Let's scope out the possibilities and what might happen next for maximum preparedness.

RLY-2608, now known as zovegalisib, has a clear data advantage in CDK inhibitor-experienced HR+/HER2- breast cancer. Although it won't launch until 2029, the commercial opportunity is characterized by an unusual degree of certainty thanks to the pursuit of a kinase mutation label.

Management maintained full-year 2025 revenue guidance, but a step-change in bookings from the Chemaxon acquisition has grown in the last three quarters. Revenue must grow, bookings must fall, or both revenue and bookings must fall.

The three pivotal data readouts for plozasiran could expand the commercial opportunity beyond the 1,000-patient niche of FCS and into the 3.5 million-patient opportunity in SHTG.

ReCell GO delivered its third consecutive quarterly revenue decline. Unfortunately, mismanagement of the cash runway means the wound care specialist has few good options to keep the lights on.

Management signaled there's significant outside interest in both CHS-114 and casdozo. Otherwise, a boring quarterly update is something investors should get used to.

Wall Street hates the exclusive license to Freenome's liquid screen for colon cancer. Meanwhile, the business roared to $811 million in revenue and a net loss of just $1 million, crushing estimates.

Revenue grew just 16% from the prior-year period, although commercial momentum metrics suggest a rebound is likely. Meanwhile, the business could generate over $250 million in operating cash flow this year.

A look at what to expect when companies report second-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late July and extending through August.

The company's blood-based colon cancer screening tool is likely to fall short of Medicare coverage requirements, which recommend specificity of 90% or above. But it's not so simple.

The enzyme provider has staked its future on improved manufacturing of RNA interference assets. Technical achievements and a flurry of deals across the landscape increases confidence in Codexis' vision.

No matter how investors slice it, Wakix is dominating the commercial landscape in narcolepsy treatments. In fact, it's been responsible for over two-thirds of the overall market's growth since launching in 2019.

The business is rock solid, but both generic and next-generation competition are on the horizon. Meanwhile, a key data readout in Q3 2025 might have a higher probability of success than analysts think.

The business has generated $323 million in cash from operations in the last year, but investors might cut short their celebration if recent and upcoming launches falter.

Although commercial execution for Loqtorzi is important, the slow ramp to a relatively small peak sales opportunity of $150 million in 2027 means it's not the key value driver. That distinction belongs to data readouts.

It's time to exit or reduce exposure to AVITA Medical. The business isn't executing and the management team has failed to restore trust with investors and analysts.

Things might get worse before they get better. I'd rather not hold through the uncertainty of needing capital in a capital-challenged environment.

This is the final short-term investment for Q1 2025 earnings season. As with the others, I'm targeting a return of at least 10%. What characteristics have I looked for?

As previously communicated, I made a series of short-term investments during Q1 2025 earnings season.

As previously communicated, I made a series of short-term investments during Q1 2025 earnings season.

This is one of multiple short-term investments I expect to make during Q1 2025 earnings season.

This is one of multiple short-term investments I expect to make during Q1 2025 earnings season.

A look at what to expect when companies report first-quarter 2025 operating results beginning in late April and extending through May.

A refined lipid nanoparticle may deliver a base editing payload into liver cells more safely than its predecessor. But the biggest risk might be commercializing it.

This month I explain why tariffs have minimal impact on drug developers, revisit timely advice from legendary investor Joel Greenblatt, and share an updated goal for my position in Relay Therapeutics.

The business certainly isn't worth less than $100 million, especially now with the debt overhang removed or in light of the Checkpoint Tx acquisition.

Despite solid cash flow from Vyjuvek, the gene therapy developer is neglecting R&D investments. The potential consequences are being ignored by investors and Wall Street.

Now focused on immuno-oncology, the drug developer expects three combination data readouts for its two lead drug candidates by mid-2026.

The biosimulation leader issued full-year 2025 revenue and earnings guidance that assumes continued caution among customers. Software acquisitions are expected.

Silencing mutant proteins has demonstrated promising therapeutic potential in the liver disease. Correcting mutant proteins seems even better.

Regulators agreed to evaluate a lower dose of RLY-2608 taken with food, instead of a higher dose on an empty stomach, in an upcoming pivotal study.

Product costs grew faster than revenue in 2024, but the launch of Cologuard Plus should improve margins this year.

Despite whiffing on revenue guidance for half of 2024, management came out swinging once again. Full-year 2025 revenue guidance calls for record growth of 61%.

I threw some new money at Coherus ahead of the publication of its abstract for ASCO GI, which promised full data from the casdozo triplet in first-line advanced liver cancer.

I previously communicated my intention to deploy my entire Roth IRA contribution to Relay Therapeutics in early 2025. I may have gotten too cute waiting for a better entry point ahead of the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, but I took advantage of the volatility from Eli Lilly's acquisition of STX-478 to atone my sins.

Management cannot seem to understand the importance of underestimating and overdelivering. I'm interested in a long-term position, so buying at favorable valuations is attractive.

The RNAi pioneer will earn $825 million upfront, plus $300 million more in the next 12 months for clinical milestones. The haul provides a cash runway into 2028.

RLY-2608 has rare blockbuster potential, but a global partnership might be the best path to realizing it. Pipeline guidance suggests the entire breast cancer portfolio could become a packaged deal in 2025.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of the upcoming safety data readout for the RLY-2608 triplet combination with a CDK inhibitor in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

The former biosimilar pioneer now owns no biosimilars heading into 2025. Instead, it looks to an early-stage immuno-oncology pipeline.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of the upcoming safety data readout for the RLY-2608 triplet combination with a CDK inhibitor in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

This month I reveal my lessons from the last market bubble and correction, which influences my current strategy. I also beat you over the head as a reminder to avoid FOMO, remain disciplined, and keep your emotions separated from your money.

The business delivered its first operating profit since Q2 2023. Strong software revenue is powering the business – and it's about to get even stronger thanks to the Chemaxon acquisition.

The business returned to a solid growth trajectory in Q3 and expects to notch its first $20 million quarter in Q4. Investors can thank the swift adoption of ReCell GO.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of the upcoming safety data readout for the RLY-2608 triplet combination with a CDK inhibitor in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

The business is objectively healthier than ever based on operating efficiency metrics, but several unexpected headwinds will result in weaker than expected growth for 2024.

The market might be in a "wait-and-see" stance until the supply shortage impact becomes clearer, but the next seven weeks might be the most favorable risk-reward for Coherus BioSciences ever.

Commercial execution remains the surest path to salvation. Although I don't assign a high value to the company's pipeline at this time, the second-most advanced asset could provide a meaningful catalyst in 2025.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of the upcoming safety data readout for the RLY-2608 triplet combination with a CDK inhibitor in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

The business is poised for an inflection point in 2024 as it ramps multiple new products and returns to cash-flow positive operations, which has been the primary driver of Wall Street's disinterest in the stock.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of upcoming data readouts in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

Sentiment for biotech is historically low right now. Although investors are rightfully eyeing Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' high cash burn with unease, I think the recent punishment is short-sighted.

The commercial drug developer can't seem to catch a break. The inability of a third-party CMO to fulfill final packaging duties will cause a shortage of Udenyca in October and November.

The company's prized asset delivered a no-doubter data readout that crushed prior-gen comparisons, but Scorpion Therapeutics quickly cemented itself as a next-gen competitor.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of upcoming data readouts in late 2024 and lower my cost basis. Here I specifically played the weekend data readout from Scorpion Therapeutics and STX-478.

The precommercial drug developer has scheduled the most important data readout in its history for Monday, September 6 before the market opens. Here's how to interpret the results.

This month we dive into the topic of leveraging data readouts to raise money while limiting dilution. Investors may get a real-world demonstration this week following a data readout for RLY-2608.

This is my core long-term position. I'm eager to add more shares ahead of upcoming data readouts in late 2024 and lower my cost basis.

Both Udenyca Onbody and Loqtorzi have captured nearly 10% of their market opportunities just four and six months into launch, respectively. The $159 million cash balance is nearly double expectations.

The two technology-enabled drug developers plan to merge under the Recursion name, stock ticker, and leadership. Things could get messy.

Revenue has more than doubled since the beginning of fiscal 2022. However, the number of customers has only grown by 28% in that span. There are advantages and disadvantages to the trend.

The business is the healthiest it's ever been – and rapidly improving – just as investors begin to worry about the health of the U.S. economy and frothiness of the stock market.

The stock's slide is frustrating, but I think my patience will be rewarded with a respectable exit in late 2024. Cash flow and profitability metrics should improve rapidly as Loqtorzi and Udenyca Onbody ramp.

The business has positive operating cash flow. It could begin generating operating income in 2025 or 2026, depending on how aggressive management wants to be – and if its internal analytics are correct.