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As previously disclosed, I plan on investing $10,000 of new principal in Relay Therapeutics ahead of the preliminary phase 1/2 vascular anomalies data readout expected May 20. The sudden surge in shares – having gained 70% in a four-week period in April 2026 – certainly gives me more to think about. Vertical price increases tend to make me nervous, especially when there isn't a specific de-risking event that triggered the move. The surge may or may not be sustainable in the near-term, and if there's a seemingly-overdue market correction, then shares of Relay Therapeutics will get whacked.

But let's take the emotions out of it.

Relay Therapeutics has a current market valuation of roughly $2.5 billion. That is, by far, the most attractive investment opportunity I see in the market right now. Zovegalisib continues to deliver with each data readout, which increases my confidence in its long-term peak sales potential of over $10 billion across various breast cancer and vascular anomalies indications. Given the long-term potential of the position, I see shares being attractive at $5 per share or $20 per share.

The Transaction

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Future Compounder position. I purchased 193.05 shares at $12.95 per share on May 5, 2026. The total transaction value was $2,500.

Outperformance Scenarios

Investing in individual stocks can be reduced to a simple question: "If I invest $1 in this individual stock at this price, will it outperform an equal passive investment in the S&P 500 at this level?" If you keep emotions and expectations in check, then you might be surprised to learn you don't need to swing for the fences.

Here's how shares of Relay Therapeutics will need to perform for the money invested in this Finch Trade to outperform passive investing in the S&P 500 in the next five years.

Assumptions:

• The S&P 500 index gains 10% per year with dividends included – its historical average since 1990.
• Relay Therapeutics has 237.5 million shares outstanding 60 months from now, representing an increase of 33% from the current outstanding share count. If share rise by 61% in the assumption period, then the market cap would increase by 114% to $4.95 billion.
• S&P 500 closing level at time of purchase on May 5, 2026 = 7,258
• Relay Therapeutics purchase price on May 5, 2026 = $12.95 per share

Margin of Safety & Allocation

Relay Therapeutics is considered a Future Compounder position. The estimated fair valuation based on my current model is below:

• Market close May 4: $13.09 per share
• Modeled Fair Valuation: $17.68 per share

Relay Therapeutics reported 178.725 million shares outstanding as of February 20, 2026. The modeled fair valuation above assumes 237.5 million shares outstanding, which represents dilution expected through the initial launch of zovegalisib.

Further Reading

• May 5, 2026 real-time announcement on Discord

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