Margin of Safety Dashboard

Certara

CERT

$
9.22
(
-3.7
%)
(
+
-3.7
%)
+
21.0
%
11.16
NASDAQ

Last Price

12/05/25, 09:30 AM
 EDT

Margin of Safety

Current Compounder
$
11.16

PORTFOLIO CATEGORY

Modeled fair value

Up to 10%
$1.777 billion

Allocation Suggestion

Modeled fair value

Model Basis

LAST REFINED:
November 12, 2025
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • Full-year 2025 revenue grows 8.3% to $417.495 million (vs. 10.7% and $426.490 million previously). Company guidance expects a midpoint of $417.5 million (vs. $420 million previously). This includes $102.305 million in Q4 2025 revenue, representing year-over-year growth of 2%.
  • Services revenue increases roughly 2.3% to $234.851 million (vs. 4.5% and $239.762 million previously). This includes $56.555 million in Q4 2025 revenue, representing a year-over-year decline of 3% (vs. $61.576 million previously).
  • Software revenue increases 17.3% to $182.644 million (vs. 19.9% and $186.729 million previously). This includes $45.750 million in Q4 2025 revenue, representing a year-over-year increase of 8% (vs. $50.629 million).
  • The revenue mix reaches 45.1% software revenue at the end of 2025. Software revenue ended at 42.1% in 2024, 38.2% in 2023, and 33.7% in 2022.
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:

Research Deep Dive

Last Updated:

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