Margin of Safety Dashboard

Codexis

CDXS

$
1.20
(
-4.0
%)
(
+
-4.0
%)
+
155.8
%
3.07
NASDAQ

Last Price

02/11/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT

Margin of Safety

Future Compounder
$
3.07

PORTFOLIO CATEGORY

Modeled fair value

Up to 5%
$319 million

Allocation Suggestion

Modeled fair value

Model Basis

LAST REFINED:
January 1, 2026
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • The heritage business has an estimated value of $85.8 million, revised lower from a previous estimate of $188.760 million. I expect full-year 2026 revenue from the heritage business to decline by more than 40% due to the Merck supply guarantee agreement pulling revenue forward and gradual loss of licensing revenue.
  • The heritage business can grow meaningfully beginning in 2028 if customer assets in pivotal studies earn approvals. Multiple of the 14 programs have data readouts scheduled before the end of 2026, which could lead to a growth surge once commercial production begins in 2028.
  • The ECO Synthesis platform is valued at $233 million. Revenue generated from the existing 10 customers is recorded as licensing revenue, since services are limited to the small-scale Innovation Lab. Will management provide guidance or outline a rough trajectory for product revenue once the new GMP facility is retooled?
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:

Research Deep Dive

Last Updated:

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