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Remember how the December 2024 Member Digest argued for building a strategic cash position? Well, I did just that.

I see good opportunities to play the Q1 2025 earnings reports of more mature businesses with short-term trades. Don't confuse this with being a day trader -- I don't look at charts or technicals. This is simply being opportunistic.

Blueprint Medicines reports Q1 2025 operating results on Thursday, May 1 before the markets open. I think it has room to increase initial full-year 2025 revenue guidance, management sees a $2 billion peak sales opportunity for Ayvakit in mast cell diseases (the largest opportunity for an asset in the coverage ecosystem aside from RLY-2608), and the business should be cash flow positive in late 2025 and profitable in 2026 (or later this year).

I made a similarly-sized investment in Exact Sciences. I will sell both positions (Exact Sciences and Blueprint Medicines) by Friday, May 2. My plan is to re-deploy the capital into Harmony Biosciences ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings report on Tuesday, May 6.

The Trade

Blueprint Medicines is considered a Growth (Quality) position. I purchased 113.37 shares at $88.21 per share on April 30, 2025.

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Outperformance Scenarios

Investing in individual stocks can be reduced to a simple question: "If I invest $1 in this individual stock at this price, will it outperform an equal passive investment in the S&P 500 at this level?"

If you keep emotions and expectations in check, then you might be surprised to learn you don't need to swing for the fences.

I usually share a table here with outperformance scenarios measured in years, which doesn't make sense for this short-term trade. I see a good opportunity to make a double-digit gain.

Margin of Safety & Allocation

Blueprint Medicines is considered a Growth (Quality) position. Coverage will be initiated soon.

Further Reading

• April 2025 Member Digest previewing Q1 2025 earnings from the coverage ecosystem