By mismanaging its cash runway and pursuing an aggressive clinical posture, Coherus Oncology is a much more binary investment than I feel comfortable with. There's "too much" riding on preliminary data readouts for tagmokitug (CCR8 inhibitor) and casdozokitug (IL-27 inhibitor). For tagmokitug, data readouts will be from multiple doses across very small numbers of patients, which could fail to excite investors. For casdozokitug, it won't have an apples-to-apples comparison to the prior phase 2 study until mid 2027.
If the data readouts don't result in a higher share price, then the business may not survive. It appears to be at the beginning of a dilution spiral either way due to a low share price. Even a 100% or 200% gain from current levels will result in a painful amount of dilution.
Can management find a way to delay the $64.5 million cash charge for Udenyca TSA payables? It might be possible to swap out the initial $37.5 million sales milestone as a credit against the amount owed...
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