Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

ARWR

Last Price
07/17/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
74.30
(
4.1
%)
(
+
4.1
%)
Margin of Safety
+
-62.0
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
28.27
Allocation Group
Future Compounder
Modeled Fair Value
$3.871 billion
Allocation Tier

Arrowhead Pharma has the wind at its back and the sun on its face. What could possibly go wrong?

The RNAi pioneer is building the commercial infrastructure to support its first approved drug, Redemplo (plozasiran), which was approved to treat familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). But it's not really about FCS. The ultimate goal is to win sweeping approvals to treat hypertriglyceridemia with fancy labels for things like reducing the risk of pancreatitis. That would catapult the market opportunity from thousands of patients to millions of patients – on paper, anyway.

Data shared to date bode well for Redemplo to eventually claim blockbuster status, although it's a difficult market that might not ramp overnight. No matter. Arrowhead Pharma corrected its initial commercial mistake of pricing the drug product too aggressively (join Discord you uncultured brute), dropping the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) from $60,000 per year to $45,000 per year. That's much more competitive with Tryngolza, an antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) from Ionis Pharma priced at $40,000 per year on the same basis. Redemplo is dosed less frequently and drives better patient outcomes to boot, so a small price advantage can be justified.

A trio of pivotal studies that will decide Redemplo's fate are expected to have topline data readouts in mid-2026. Throw in development updates for complement mediated diseases, obesity, MASH, neuro, asthma, and cardiovascular disease – as well as updates from assets partnered or owned by Amgen, Sarepta, Takeda, Novartis, and GlaxoSmithKline – and there's plenty for investors to be excited about in the near and long term. The current model is desperately outdated, but will be updated this summer.

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Last Refined

August 14, 2025
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • Component A: Plozasiran approval in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) in November 2025
  • Component B: Risk-weighted valuation contributions from plozasiran in SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and MUIR-3
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:
  • Complement-mediated disease assets ARO-C3 and ARO-CFB (phase 2 ready)
  • Zodasiran in homozygous familial hypercholesteremia (HoFH) (phase 3)
  • ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7 obesity assets
  • ARO-DIMER-PA in mixed hyperlipidemia (phase 1 ready)
  • ARO-MAPT in Alzheimer's disease (phase 1/2 ready)
  • Plozasiran in SHASTA-5 (label expansion: acute pancreatitis in sHTG) and CAPITAN studies (label expansion: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk reduction)
  • ARO-RAGE in inflammatory lung diseases (phase 1/2)
  • ARO-PNPLA3 in a subset of metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) (phase 1)
  • Fazirsiran in alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) liver disease (phase 3, partnered with Takeda)
  • ARO-SNCA in synucleinopathies such as Parkinson's disease (phase 1 ready, licensed to Novartis)
  • Olpasiran in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (phase 3, licensed to Amgen)

SEC Filings