Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

ARWR

Last Price
07/31/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
84.65
(
-3.1
%)
(
+
-3.1
%)
Margin of Safety
+
17.2
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
99.23
Allocation Group
Future Compounder
Modeled Fair Value
$15.374 billion
Allocation Tier

Arrowhead Pharma has the wind at its back and the sun on its face. What could possibly go wrong?

The RNAi pioneer is building the commercial infrastructure to support its first approved drug, Redemplo (plozasiran), which was approved to treat familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). But it's not really about FCS. The ultimate goal is to win sweeping approvals to treat hypertriglyceridemia with fancy labels for things like reducing the risk of pancreatitis. That would catapult the market opportunity from thousands of patients to millions of patients – on paper, anyway.

Data shared to date bode well for Redemplo to eventually claim blockbuster status, although it's a difficult market that might not ramp overnight. No matter. Arrowhead Pharma corrected its initial commercial mistake of pricing the drug product too aggressively (join Discord you uncultured brute), dropping the wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) from $60,000 per year to $45,000 per year. That's much more competitive with Tryngolza, an antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) from Ionis Pharma priced at $40,000 per year on the same basis. Redemplo is dosed less frequently and drives better patient outcomes to boot, so a small price advantage can be justified.

A trio of pivotal studies that will decide Redemplo's fate are expected to have topline data readouts in mid-2026. Throw in development updates for complement mediated diseases, obesity, MASH, neuro, asthma, and cardiovascular disease – as well as updates from assets partnered or owned by Amgen, Sarepta, Takeda, Novartis, and GlaxoSmithKline – and there's plenty for investors to be excited about in the near and long term. The current model is desperately outdated, but will be updated this summer.

Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
An icon graphic of Gouldy the Finch.
#protectYourAssets

Solt DB will launch asset deep dives for all companies in the coverage ecosystem by the end of 2026. These will seamlessly integrate into company-specific financial models, allowing members to determine a company's fair value when specific assets are included or excluded.

Want me to prioritize a specific company or asset? Let me know on Discord or through the contact page.

Last Refined

July 29, 2026
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • Component A: Plozasiran approval in familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). This is a small commercial opportunity, but is important for building and ramping early commercial infrastructure in cardiometabolic diseases ahead of expected launches in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) for plozasiran, homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) for zodasiran, and obesity for ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7.
  • Component B: Risk-weighted valuation contributions from supplemental approval of plozasiran in sHTG following data readouts in SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4, including favorable product labels similar to Tryngolza from Ionis Pharmaceuticals, specifically regarding language around reducing the risk of pancreatitis. This indication is expected to launch by mid-2027.
  • Component C: Risk-weighted valuation contribution from zodasiran in homozygous familial hypercholesteremia (HoFH). The pivotal YOSEMITE study is fully enrolled as of late July 2026. A topline data readout is expected in mid-2027, which could enable commercial launch in mid-2028.
  • Component D: Risk-weighted valuation contribution from the pivotal MUIR-3 study in less severe HTG.
  • Component E: Risk-weighted valuation contribution from complement-mediated disease assets ARO-C3 and ARO-CFB (phase 2 ready)
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:
  • ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7 obesity assets
  • ARO-DIMER-PA in mixed hyperlipidemia (phase 1 ready)
  • ARO-MAPT in Alzheimer's disease (phase 1/2 ready)
  • Plozasiran in SHASTA-5 (label expansion: acute pancreatitis in sHTG) and CAPITAN studies (label expansion: atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk reduction)
  • ARO-RAGE in inflammatory lung diseases (phase 1/2)
  • ARO-PNPLA3 in a subset of metabolic-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) (phase 1, outlicensed to Madrigal)
  • Fazirsiran in alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) liver disease (phase 3, partnered with Takeda)
  • ARO-SNCA in synucleinopathies such as Parkinson's disease (phase 1 ready, licensed to Novartis)
  • Olpasiran in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) (phase 3, licensed to Amgen)

SEC Filings