AVITA Medical

RCEL

Last Price
07/17/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
5.10
(
2.4
%)
(
+
2.4
%)
Margin of Safety
+
-99.8
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
0.01
Allocation Group
Future Compounder
Modeled Fair Value
$0 million
Allocation Tier

Lady Gaga has a great poker face. Maybe AVITA Medical should start taking notes.

Management tried to sell a story of progress on the Q1 2026 earnings call, but those keeping score at home can see things are not well. The business ended March 2026 with just $14.3 million in cash – and it burned $9.9 million in cash from operations in the first quarter. While cash burn should slow in the coming quarters, that's not much consolation given the, well, $14.3 million in cash.

The wound care specialist might soon get a tiny bit of breathing room. On June 5, AVITA Medical issued a warrant certificate to its lender Perceptive Advisors, which can purchase 650,000 shares of common stock at $3.49 per share. That's $2.27 million in gross proceeds. Most of that might go to pay debt obligations, but it could extend the cash runway by another month or two. It can also draw down an additional $10 million from the existing credit facility.

This one's a bummer. The technology is real. The margins are great. The old management team simply mismanaged operations to a point that there's no margin for error, and it might already be too late. Investors might need an acquisition out of desperation, a lopsided partnership, selling rights in stable vitiligo, or a potentially lucrative international licensing deal to salvage positions.

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Last Refined

August 7, 2025
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • AVITA Medical is priced for bankruptcy. The model will be updated if the business increases its odds of survival. Please reference the research note from October 17, 2025.
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:
  • AVITA Medical is priced for bankruptcy. The model will be updated if the business increases its odds of survival. Please reference the research note from October 17, 2025.

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