Certara

CERT

Last Price
04/24/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
6.32
(
5.3
%)
(
+
5.3
%)
Margin of Safety
+
79.7
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
11.36
Modeled Fair Value
$1.827 billion
Allocation Group
Current Compounder
Allocation Tier
Coming soon!

Investment Thesis

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Last Refined

February 27, 2026
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • Full-year 2026 revenue grows 1.9% to $426.999 million. The model expects gradual improvements throughout the year, with Q1 growth of -3%, Q2 growth of 1%, and 2H 2026 growth of 5%. Company guidance expects growth of 0% to 4%, representing a midpoint of $426.870 million, but this could be topped if internal processes drive improvements sooner than expected.
  • Services revenue is flat at $235.544 million. This includes Q1 growth of -5% and Q2 growth of -1%, then 2H 2026 growth of 3%.
  • Software revenue increases 4.5% to $191.454 million. This includes Q1 growth of 0%, Q2 growth of 3%, Q3 growth of 7%, and Q4 growth of 8%.
  • The revenue mix reaches 45.9% software revenue at the end of 2026, which represents the smallest improvement in recent years. Software revenue ended at 44.7% in 2025, 42.1% in 2024, 38.2% in 2023, and 33.7% in 2022.
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:

SEC Filings