Krystal Biotech

KRYS

Last Price
07/31/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
341.05
(
-7.0
%)
(
+
-7.0
%)
Margin of Safety
+
-18.9
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
276.54
Allocation Group
Current Compounder
Modeled Fair Value
$8.560 billion
Allocation Tier

Vyjuvek keeps growing. Krystal Biotech keeps hoarding cash. Like a dragon protecting treasure…

Although the growth rate of Vyjuvek is slowing, new and upcoming approvals in European countries and Japan promise to keep nudging the epidermolysis bullosa treatment closer to its peak sales potential. Investors aren't complaining considering the drug developer is sitting on a cash balance that now tops $1 billion.

Management is finally reversing its R&D austerity policy by investing in diverse assets. That includes a formulation of Vyjuvek for eye lesions and KB801 for neurotrophic keratitis, another eye disorder. Both are expected to have pivotal data readouts in Q4 2026. Both are relatively small market opportunities, but could add over $100 million in annual revenue with minimal additional commercial infrastructure.

KB111 is being developed for a rare skin disorder called Hailey-Hailey disease (HHD). It's a smart, ultra-rare condition that leverages the company's existing commercial infrastructure for Vyjuvek. However, Krystal Biotech is taking the unusual step to develop its own clinical scale for measuring responses, then using that for evaluating its own drug candidate. It did the same thing for its aesthetics pipeline with all the controversial fallout you might expect.

The assets with high-impact potential continue to face stalled or slow development.

KB407 has the potential to treat all forms of cystic fibrosis, potentially neutering Vertex Pharmaceuticals, but Krystal Biotech is choosing an ultra-slow study design in just five patients for half a year. The upside is that data are expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027, but perfect efficacy might be required to get the market excited. Then again, perfect efficacy in even five patients would send shares soaring.

Similarly, KB408 has the potential to functionally cure alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency lung disease, but the asset has been moving through development at a glacial pace. Repeat dosing data are expected later this year. However, base editors and RNA editors capable of fixing faulty genes and mRNA transcripts could be a much simpler approach to treating the condition. These competitors have leapfrogged Krystal Biotech in the clinic.

Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
An icon graphic of Gouldy the Finch.
#protectYourAssets

Solt DB will launch asset deep dives for all companies in the coverage ecosystem by the end of 2026. These will seamlessly integrate into company-specific financial models, allowing members to determine a company's fair value when specific assets are included or excluded.

Want me to prioritize a specific company or asset? Let me know on Discord or through the contact page.

Last Refined

July 29, 2026
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
  • Component A: Full-year 2026 revenue of $564 million and net income of $236 million.
  • Component B: Contribution from the overall technology platform.
  • Component C: Supplemental approval of KB803, an ophthalmic (eye) formulation of Vyjuvek, for eye complications of dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (DEB). It adds up to $100 million in peak annual revenue.
  • Component D: Risk-weighted contributions from late-stage pipeline programs, including KB801 in neurotrophic keratitis (eye disorder) and Hailey-Hailey disease (skin disorder).
  • Component E: Risk-weighted contributions from earlier-stage programs with less data or development momentum, including KB707 in non-small cell lung cancer and KB407 in cystic fibrosis.
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:
  • KB105 in lamellar ichthyosis (phase 1/2)
  • KB408 in alpha-1 antitrypsin (A1AT) deficiency (phase 1/2)
  • All other pipeline programs

SEC Filings