Certara is sitting at an attractive valuation for those looking to build a long-term position, but it's important to keep expectations in check. If the business grows total revenue near 0% or in the low single-digits in 2026 (likely outdated after agreeing to divest the regulatory software and clinical writing segments to Veristat), then the stock is unlikely to perform well. The floor is also quite a bit lower than the current price. If the market wobbles, then shares of Certara could trade closer to 1x revenue instead of the current >2x revenue.
This is one of my top positions to begin building in 2026 or 2027. A market downturn would accelerate my plans.
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