Codexis

CDXS

Last Price
05/01/26, 09:30 AM
 EDT
$
2.67
(
-5.3
%)
(
+
-5.3
%)
Margin of Safety
+
20.2
%
Modeled Fair Value
$
3.21
Modeled Fair Value
$336 million
Allocation Group
Future Compounder
Allocation Tier
Model Portfolios launch in 2026

Codexis will make its annual splash at the TIDES USA conference May 11-14, which is the leading conference for oligonucleotide nerdery. Oligonucleotides ("oligos" for shot) are things like RNA. The industrial enzyme manufacturer will share updates on ligation services (an important stepping stone to full ECO Synthesis), controlling stereopurity of oligos (potentially yielding lower doses of less-frequently administered RNAi), and the sustainability of enzymatic synthesis. It'll also host a talk with former Alnylam Pharma CEO and founder John Maraganore, Arrowhead Pharma's head of CMC, and Codexis CEO Alison Moore.

As for the attractiveness of shares, Codexis does need to raise more capital to pursue its vision. It also needs more concrete signs of buy-in from RNAi drug developers. One problem for investors: by the time that press release comes across your screen, it might be "too late" to start a position. I'm interested in Codexis as one of my core long-term positions, but am happy to seed it in 2026 before potentially building a larger position in late 2026 or 1H 2027.

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Last Refined

March 15, 2026
The current model INCLUDES the following assets and assumptions:
The current model is based on operating metrics, including:
    • The Heritage Business has an estimated value of $124.58 million, revised from a previous estimate of $85.8 million. The change reflects full-year 2026 revenue that's much higher than prior estimates. As ECO Synthesis begins contributing meaningful revenue this year, it will be more difficult to gauge the health of the legacy segment unless the company provides detailed financials.
    • The Heritage Business can return to growth beginning in 2028 if customer assets in pivotal studies earn approvals. Three such assets had data readouts in recent months with two claiming success, which leaves the pipeline with 11 more customer assets. Every approval represents a multi-year revenue stream.
    • The ECO Synthesis platform is valued at $197 million, revised from a previous estimate of $233 million. The revision more accurately reflects guidance for the GMP facility to be fully operational by the end of 2027 (later than expected). This component can become more valuable if ligation services ramp in 2026.
The current model EXCLUDES the following assets:

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